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    Can the northern lights be predicted?

    What aurora forecasts can and cannot tell you.

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    Short answer

    Only to a limited degree. The Finnish Meteorological Institute provides an aurora and space weather service based on magnetic field measurements, and it can warn when activity is likely. Exact times and strength cannot be predicted. You also need a dark, clear sky, so the weather forecast for clouds is just as important.

    Weather & Seasons

    Why

    1. FMI has said that auroras can never be predicted accurately.
    2. FMI publishes an aurora and space weather service with the latest activity.
    3. A meteorologist quoted by VR stresses that a cloudless sky is needed to see auroras.

    Details

    In northern Lapland auroras are so common that a clear, dark night often gives a good chance even without a strong forecast.

    Tip

    Check the cloud forecast first, then the space weather. Go out between about 9 pm and 2 am and give your eyes time to adjust to the dark.

    What may differ

    Many hotels in Lapland offer aurora alarms that wake guests when lights appear.

    Common misconception

    An aurora app can tell you exactly when the lights will appear tonight.

    What actually happens

    Apps show activity and probabilities. Exact timing and strength cannot be forecast.

    People also ask

    • Is there an aurora alert in Finland?
    • What is the best aurora app for Finland?
    • How do you know when northern lights will appear?

    Sources

    This answer is for reference only. Weather varies a lot from year to year, so check the forecast of the Finnish Meteorological Institute before you travel.

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